Is This Degree Worth It?
Adjust a degree's expected earnings benefit for completion probability, direct cost, loan interest, and earnings forgone while studying.
Education cost
Net cost means tuition and incremental living costs after grants.
Expected outcome
Completion probability prevents treating graduation as guaranteed.
About the Is This Degree Worth It?
Whether a specific degree is worth pursuing depends on more than sticker-price tuition — it depends on net cost after aid, how the degree is financed, how many years of income are given up while studying, and the realistic (not best-case) probability of actually completing the program. This calculator probability-adjusts the expected earnings benefit for completion risk and weighs it against cash-paid cost, amortized loan payments, and forgone earnings, producing an expected net financial value rather than a simple payback estimate. It's designed for prospective students, career-changers considering a credential, and parents evaluating a specific program — using completion and salary data specific to that program rather than broad institutional averages.
How this calculator works
The exact model, assumptions, and limitations used for this decision.
Expected net value = cumulative salary lift × completion probability − cash-paid education cost − amortized loan payments − earnings forgone.
Calculation steps
- Net education cost is divided between cash-paid cost and borrowed principal without double counting.
- Borrowing uses fixed monthly amortization over the entered term.
- Potential earnings lift is probability-adjusted for program completion.
Important assumptions
- The entered loan balance includes any interest capitalized before repayment.
- Both career paths share the entered salary-growth rate.
- Employment probability after completion is reflected in salary or completion inputs.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions about inputs, assumptions, and interpreting the result.
01How is this different from College ROI?+
This version explicitly probability-adjusts the earnings benefit for completion risk. College ROI focuses on a completed degree's cost and earnings break-even.
02Why use net cost rather than tuition?+
Net cost includes tuition and incremental attendance expenses after grants and scholarships. Sticker tuition alone can materially misstate household cost.
03How is loan interest calculated?+
The balance is amortized with a fixed monthly payment at the entered APR and term. Include capitalized pre-repayment interest in the starting balance.
04Where can I find completion and earnings data?+
Use College Scorecard, school disclosures, licensing outcomes, and program-specific regional earnings—not broad institution-wide marketing figures.
05What if I work during school?+
Reduce earnings forgone by lowering the salary-without-degree amount or years fully out of work.
06Does positive expected value guarantee a good decision?+
No. Accreditation, career fit, completion support, job availability, and debt-payment risk remain essential.
07How conservative should my completion probability estimate be?+
Use the specific program's completion rate if available, and lean conservative for demanding programs, unfamiliar formats, or if you'll be balancing significant work or family obligations during school.
08Does the calculator account for a possible pay cut while training part-time?+
Only if you reflect it in the salary-without-degree or years-in-school inputs. If you'll work reduced hours while studying, lower that salary figure to reflect actual expected earnings during the program.